OP 21 November, 2019 - 03:32 PM
A bunch of new members joined the discord yesterday, happy to talk with you all and welcome to the group! :)
VIP I went with 6 plays (5 NBA, 1 NHL) and overall it was a <pretty good day>. VIP 3-2-1 depending on the line you got for the Sixers (it was down to OU210.5 by game time):
SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS. WASHINGTON WIZARDS +2.5 (-104)
NEW YORK KNICKS VS. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS OVER 213 (+105)
ORLANDO MAGIC +3.5 (-108) VS. TORONTO RAPTORS
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS -14 (-103)
WASHINGTON CAPITALS VS. NEW YORK RANGERS OVER 6.5 (-129)
HOUSTON ROCKETS VS. DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 223.5 (-105)
Gave out some free plays tonight too, more than usual :-o
Free Play 11/20/19
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers -12.5
Utah Jazz vs. Minnesota Timberwolves +3
Boston Celtics +7.5 (if you can get +8 with decent odds, take it) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
I've been working on a new algorithm for some time now after VIP plays. This algorithm focuses a little more on Vegas average odds and then hard compares with the algorithms outputted projection to provide `value` in the odds. So this algorithm is heavily weighted in the odds direction and providing good value plays. This also has the potential to have many more plays (or less?) depending on the value in the day's plays. I have it currently hard focused on NBA and NFL -- going to stay away from unpredictability of college (football and basketball) and hockey since I normally bet totals there. I will be posting Spread and Money-Line plays FOR FREE from this model for AT LEAST 1 week (starting today, 11/21/19).
A little preview, as you can see it analyzes all the Vegas spreads and gives me their implied odds based off of what the line is at.
![[Image: MHaBP78.png]](https://i.imgur.com/MHaBP78.png)
My algorithm runs the game, gives its own projection and then seeks value in it
![[Image: ZMFlPBJ.png]](https://i.imgur.com/ZMFlPBJ.png)
So quick synopsis here, you see that Vegas is implying we only win 38% of the time, but my algorithm thinks we win (straight up) 40% of the time. This seems to think there's value and that if we played this game 100x we would make more money than Vegas is projecting we do. Does that make all plays great? Absolutely not, might not even play this game tonight for example. However, different concept -- it's completely free and will be posted in my discord all results, so you can just hang out and watch -- don't need to bet it. My goal is to make something -- that requires a little less work from me -- that is winning and I can sell out cheaper to other members who can't afford the plays I spend full mornings working on. Hopefully that appeals to more people!! Looking forward to seeing how this algorithm does in comparison with my VIP.
Join Discord: https://discord.gg/ZWEcfpe
Easiest way to contact me, Discord: JohnBarr#8696
Have a great day everyone and let's win some money!
VIP I went with 6 plays (5 NBA, 1 NHL) and overall it was a <pretty good day>. VIP 3-2-1 depending on the line you got for the Sixers (it was down to OU210.5 by game time):
SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS. WASHINGTON WIZARDS +2.5 (-104)
NEW YORK KNICKS VS. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS OVER 213 (+105)
ORLANDO MAGIC +3.5 (-108) VS. TORONTO RAPTORS
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS -14 (-103)
WASHINGTON CAPITALS VS. NEW YORK RANGERS OVER 6.5 (-129)
HOUSTON ROCKETS VS. DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 223.5 (-105)
Gave out some free plays tonight too, more than usual :-o
Free Play 11/20/19
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers -12.5
Utah Jazz vs. Minnesota Timberwolves +3
Boston Celtics +7.5 (if you can get +8 with decent odds, take it) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
I've been working on a new algorithm for some time now after VIP plays. This algorithm focuses a little more on Vegas average odds and then hard compares with the algorithms outputted projection to provide `value` in the odds. So this algorithm is heavily weighted in the odds direction and providing good value plays. This also has the potential to have many more plays (or less?) depending on the value in the day's plays. I have it currently hard focused on NBA and NFL -- going to stay away from unpredictability of college (football and basketball) and hockey since I normally bet totals there. I will be posting Spread and Money-Line plays FOR FREE from this model for AT LEAST 1 week (starting today, 11/21/19).
A little preview, as you can see it analyzes all the Vegas spreads and gives me their implied odds based off of what the line is at.
My algorithm runs the game, gives its own projection and then seeks value in it
So quick synopsis here, you see that Vegas is implying we only win 38% of the time, but my algorithm thinks we win (straight up) 40% of the time. This seems to think there's value and that if we played this game 100x we would make more money than Vegas is projecting we do. Does that make all plays great? Absolutely not, might not even play this game tonight for example. However, different concept -- it's completely free and will be posted in my discord all results, so you can just hang out and watch -- don't need to bet it. My goal is to make something -- that requires a little less work from me -- that is winning and I can sell out cheaper to other members who can't afford the plays I spend full mornings working on. Hopefully that appeals to more people!! Looking forward to seeing how this algorithm does in comparison with my VIP.
Join Discord: https://discord.gg/ZWEcfpe
Easiest way to contact me, Discord: JohnBarr#8696
Have a great day everyone and let's win some money!